Round 20 belonged to the matchups the market priced one way and the Matchup Engine ranked the other.
Daniel Tupou over Mark Nawaqanitawase. Dean Ieremia over Phillip Sami. Jethro Rinakama over Jacob Kiraz.
Three disagreements, one pattern: the shorter-priced winger blanked, and the board's higher-rated winger scored.
The round at the top
The game's #1-rated matchup scored in six of the eight matches: Sione Katoa, Tupou, Alex Johnston, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Rinakama and Tolutau Koula.
Seven of the ten highest-rated players on the round-wide board crossed. Of the players who scored, Watene-Zelezniak carried the highest matchup rating, sitting second overall.
Ieremia over Sami: two wingers, two very different lanes
The cleanest read of the round. The market had Phillip Sami as the shorter-priced Titans winger at $1.90, with Dean Ieremia out at $2.50. The board had them in the opposite order — Ieremia fifth in the game, Sami fourteenth.
Sami was running at Manly's right-side channel, which had conceded just four tries in 17 games — one of the stingiest edges in the competition. Ieremia was running at Manly's left edge: 14 conceded in 17, third-leakiest in the competition.
Same team, same afternoon, and a 4-versus-14 gulf between the two lanes they were attacking. Ieremia scored. Sami blanked.
Tupou over Nawaqanitawase: the shorter price didn't have the softer lane
The market made Mark Nawaqanitawase the shortest price of the entire round at $1.66. The board had him third in his own game, with Daniel Tupou at #1.
Nawaqanitawase was attacking the Storm's left edge — 10 tries conceded in 17 games, around mid-table. Tupou was attacking their right edge: 13 in 17, seventh-leakiest in the competition.
Tupou scored. Nawaqanitawase blanked.
Rinakama over Kiraz: the leakiest lane isn't automatically the best matchup
Jacob Kiraz actually had the softer channel to attack in Bulldogs v Tigers, but his own try-scoring profile graded among the lowest of any winger this round, and the board weighs both.
It rated Jethro Rinakama the #1 matchup in the game and left Kiraz, the market's $1.80 favourite, at seventh. Rinakama scored; Kiraz blanked.
The same soft lane does not produce the same matchup for every player attacking it.
Isaako, twice, through the leakiest wing channel in the league
Jamayne Isaako ranked second in Dolphins v Cowboys and scored twice against the competition's leakiest wing channel — the Cowboys' left edge, 15 tries conceded in 17 games, more than any other.
What else landed
Centres. Four of the five top-rated centres scored: Billy Smith, Enari Tuala, Tolutau Koula and Matt Burton — Burton attacking the channel that had conceded the most tries to centres in the league.
Wings. Seven of the top ten on the wing board scored.
Fullbacks. Kaeo Weekes, fifth on the fullback board, scored twice against the defence that had conceded the most tries to fullbacks.
Second row. In Dolphins v Cowboys, Jeremiah Nanai — the round's top-rated second-rower — had the softest defensive lane in the game, and the board rated him above both Cowboys wingers. Nanai scored; Murray Taulagi, priced at $1.90, and Braidon Burns both blanked.
The tape. The tape review attributed three tries in Titans v Sea Eagles to one channel: Gold Coast's left side. Jason Saab, the game's third-rated player, scored twice on that side; Tom Trbojevic added the third. Not three unrelated events — three tries attributed to the same edge.
First try. Ignition found three opening scorers: Siua Wong at $29 in Roosters v Storm, Adam Pompey at $13 in Warriors v Dragons and Jethro Rinakama at $9.50 in Bulldogs v Tigers. Wong also carried the game's number-one First Strike signal.
The misses
Thomas Jenkins, the highest-rated player of the entire round, didn't score. A rain-affected game provides context, but he remains the clearest miss of the round.
None of the board's ten top-rated halves scored either. The three halves who did cross were all further down the board.
The takeaway
The board does not rank a player in isolation. It weighs the scoring profile, the defensive channel in front of him and how the two fit together.
Round 20 produced several clear examples of that player-and-lane assessment separating from the market's price order, inside a round where the number-one matchup scored in six of eight games and seven of the round-wide top ten crossed.
One round is only one round. Rate the matchups, show the work and let the results accumulate.